Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 76058.203511 80346.788061 84638.740645 89253.288726 94071.257021 98950.104808 104260.964643
2026-01-04 69468.161266 76031.516287 82786.161140 90247.761911 98249.682198 106563.874998 115846.017066
2026-01-11 64573.532925 72691.229304 81231.876415 90867.983313 101417.862912 112597.181928 125319.204680
2026-01-18 60482.645256 69727.335218 79636.157500 91015.060482 103688.192116 117336.069126 133111.392081
2026-01-25 57185.129001 67321.849807 78365.129052 91242.978430 105799.131177 121693.342303 140310.757820
2026-02-01 54187.198190 65023.052410 77003.864358 91169.864012 107395.648491 125332.828198 146591.907209
2026-02-08 52057.106730 63559.650054 76448.841444 91879.873336 109765.229040 129754.976888 153694.604105
2026-02-15 49737.835362 61740.013269 75361.069248 91861.311559 111200.029316 133036.881519 159443.193758
2026-02-22 48389.515768 60974.592933 75422.419037 93110.651922 114049.592889 137910.630195 167014.131535
2026-03-01 46938.570074 60006.133698 75174.269267 93933.147504 116350.994497 142119.353761 173805.260000
2026-03-08 45128.408578 58521.552140 74237.691370 93868.292927 117546.296862 144993.437211 179010.324586
2026-03-15 43651.892134 57378.598869 73652.822494 94171.537498 119136.793126 148304.788110 184720.296679
2026-03-22 42829.155295 57021.357001 74011.332645 95621.156368 122128.238919 153325.288832 192539.642434
2026-03-29 41845.549050 56422.655599 74041.562154 96645.844279 124594.568255 157724.905283 199646.373100
2026-04-05 40744.722691 55630.892834 73794.218939 97295.519035 126580.699629 161538.622927 206058.548910
2026-04-12 39477.109945 54578.703499 73179.198583 97449.633090 127927.190034 164559.777506 211508.723621
2026-04-19 38324.660090 53632.729644 72660.236283 97690.305043 129355.433586 167667.279287 217066.266177
2026-04-26 37093.069649 52541.266799 71917.816034 97612.926343 130357.921313 170234.274376 221956.609632
2026-05-03 36294.094168 51989.455586 71841.748129 98363.605302 132389.869128 174073.499862 228433.849271
2026-05-10 35204.543882 51015.986382 71188.510626 98343.976935 133423.237000 176658.103345 233353.254339
2026-05-17 34735.202546 50855.257887 71579.213442 99664.767787 136165.235270 181391.428003 240984.623682
2026-05-24 34103.517267 50452.585040 71633.957594 100534.204596 138322.129112 185393.706962 247718.554911
2026-05-31 33122.455931 49543.336478 70991.902355 100465.651404 139249.565459 187831.868513 252481.788541